B2 · Modal verbs
Modals as a guess
how sure you are
The same six verbs used a second time — not about what is possible, but about how likely the speaker thinks it is.
Every German modal has a second life in which it says nothing about ability or permission and everything about the speaker's confidence. Er muss zu Hause sein does not mean he is obliged to be at home — it means the speaker is nearly certain that he is.
The scale runs roughly: muss for near certainty, dürfte for a confident guess, kann and könnte for a possibility, mag for a grudging concession. Will and soll do something else again: they report a claim, will the person's own and soll somebody else's.
English does the same thing with the same verbs — "he must be home by now", "that could be right", "she is supposed to be very good" — so the mechanism is familiar. What has to be learned is which German verb sits where on the scale, and especially that dürfte is a polite estimate and not a permission.
Die Form
| near certain | Er muss krank sein. |
| confident guess | Das dürfte stimmen. |
| possible | Sie könnte recht haben. |
| he claims | Er will das nicht gewusst haben. |
| people say | Sie soll sehr gut sein. |
Die Regeln im Einzelnen
müssen expresses near certainty about a fact.
Sie muss den Zug verpasst haben.She must have missed the train.
dürfte is a careful estimate, not a permission.
Das dürfte etwa zwanzig Euro kosten.That will cost about twenty euros.
können and könnte mark something as merely possible.
Das könnte ein Missverständnis sein.That could be a misunderstanding.
wollen reports the subject's own claim; sollen reports somebody else's.
Er will nichts gewusst haben.He claims he knew nothing about it.
Genauer hingesehen
Why one set of verbs does both jobs
Necessity and certainty are the same idea pointed at different things. "It must be so" is a claim that the facts leave no alternative; "you must do it" is a claim that the circumstances leave no alternative. Languages that mark one of these usually end up marking the other with the same words, and German and English both did.
The practical value is that the second meaning does not have to be learned as new vocabulary — it has to be recognised. A modal followed by sein or a perfect infinitive is almost always the guessing use, and a modal followed by an ordinary action verb is almost always the first one.
Ausnahmen und Sonderfälle (2)
-
the guess is about the past
the modal is followed by a participle plus haben or sein: sie muss es vergessen haben.
Er muss den Bus verpasst haben.He must have missed the bus.
The modal stays in the present because the guess is being made now; only what is guessed about is past.
-
sollen reports hearsay
the German is neutral about whether it is true, where English "is supposed to be" often implies doubt.
Das Museum soll neu eröffnet worden sein.The museum is said to have reopened.
German marks the source of the claim, not the speaker's opinion of it.
Woran man es erkennt
- muss ... sein
- dürfte
- könnte
- mag
- will ... haben
- soll
Beispielsätze
Er muss schon zu Hause sein.He must be home by now.
Das dürfte kein Problem sein.That should not be a problem.
Sie könnte sich geirrt haben.She could have been mistaken.
Das Restaurant soll sehr gut sein.The restaurant is said to be very good.
Er will den Brief nie bekommen haben.He claims he never received the letter.
Noch 8 Beispielsätze
Das kann nicht stimmen.That cannot be right.
Sie dürfte inzwischen angekommen sein.She should have arrived by now.
Er mag recht haben, aber er hilft uns nicht.He may be right, but he is not helping us.
Der Film soll ziemlich lang sein.The film is supposed to be quite long.
Das dürfte reichen.That should be enough.
Sie will davon nichts gewusst haben.She claims to have known nothing about it.
Es könnte auch anders gewesen sein.It could also have been otherwise.
Er muss sehr müde gewesen sein.He must have been very tired.
Besonderheiten (2)
-
wollen is the only one that doubts the speaker
Using <z>wollen</z> to report somebody's claim carries an audible scepticism: <z>er will das nicht gewusst haben</z> says he claims it and leaves open that he is lying. It is the standard construction in court reporting and in journalism for exactly that reason, and it has no neutral equivalent — using it is taking a position.
Der Angeklagte will den Zeugen nicht gekannt haben.The defendant claims not to have known the witness.
-
wohl does the same job with one word
The particle <z>wohl</z> marks a guess without any modal at all: <z>Er ist wohl krank</z>. It is far commoner in speech than the modal constructions and is worth having first — the modals are what writing reaches for when the degree of confidence needs to be graded.
Sie hat es wohl vergessen.She has probably forgotten it.
Die typisch deutsche Falle
Aufgepasst
Dürfte in the guessing sense is not about permission at all, and a sentence that keeps a personal subject reads as one that is. The estimating use nearly always has an impersonal subject and a state rather than an action after it: das dürfte reichen, es dürfte schwierig werden. With ich and an action, it is a permission again.
muss is near certain, dürfte is a guess, könnte is a maybe.
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